Math people needed to help in analysis for Omen custom mod....

I started doing some statistical research for Yhtill's Hidden AO variant based on Omen cards. Ive done some tweaking, but I cant seem to get the numbers to balance. Shub and Yog keep winning out more.... if anyone wants to lend a statistical eye to this analysis....

Omens in Arkham:
A hidden Ancient One variant
Alpha Test

Axiom 1) Each doom token that is generated is placed in a doom token pool and an Omen card is revealed and resolved.

Axiom 2) Each Omen card will increase one or more Ancient Ones â€œnumberâ€ until one Ancient One reaches 4. That will then be the Ancient One used.

Axiom 3) When the Ancient One is revealed, doom tokens in the doom token pool will be placed on the AOâ€™s doom track

Axiom 4) Omen cards will be removed from play when the Ancient one is revealed

Axiom 5) Some Omen cards will remove a doom token from the doom token pool when they come into play

Axiom 6) Some Omen cards will remain in play for the entire game, rather then be discarded when the Ancient One wakes.

Axiom 7) If Yog-Sothoth, Hastur or Nyarlathotep enter play with a total score of 5, their heralds also enter play.

Layout of Cards: (number on left indicates names to the right get that number added to their total)

1 Azathoth Nyarlathotep YogSothoth ShubNiggurath
1 Cthulhu Hastur Yig Glaaki
1 Ithaqua Tsathoggua Shudde Mâ€™ell Abhoth
1 Nyarlathotep YogSothoth Hastur Abhoth
1 ShubNiggurath Yig Glaaki Abhoth
1 Azathoth Cthulhu Tsathoggua Shudde Mâ€™ell
2 Nyarlathotep Abhoth
2 YogSothoth Cthulhu
2 ShubNiggurath Shudde Mâ€™ell
2 Azathoth Hastur
2 Yig Tsathoggua
2 Glaaki Ithaqua
3 Cthulhu
3 Hastur
3 Yig
3 Glaaki
3 Azathoth
3 Nyarlathotep
3 YogSothoth
3 ShubNiggurath
3 Ithaqua
3 Tsathoggua
3 Shudde Mâ€™ell
3 Abhoth

Statistical breakdown of 10,000 random draws:

Times To Run: 10000 Avg Turns: 6.0868
Points For Win: 4 # Wins: 8734 # Ties: 1266
Name Wins Ties
CTHULHU 685 218
HASTUR 632 291
YIG 363 131
GLAAKI 694 212
AZATHOTH 753 244
NARLY 691 263
YOG 1117 232
SHUB 1104 256
ITHAQUA 363 153
TSATH 687 241
SHUDDE 726 191
ABHOTH 919 333

As you can see, Yog and Shub are winning like twice as many times as the other average AO's and Yig is getting shafted...

Here is the text of the cards, just for kicks... sorry if I am stepping on your toes Yhtill, but I wanted to put something together to playtest with my groups this weekend.....

Tier 1: (4 AOâ€™s per card)

Astronomical Aberrations

Each Investigator who ends their movement in the street loses 1 sanity unless they pass a Luck (-1) Check to avoid seeing an astronomic abnormality.

Azathoth +1
Nyarlathotep +1
Yog-Sothoth +1
Shub-Niggurath +1

Was It a Dream?

When this card comes into play, and each time an Investigator is delayed, make a
Lore (-1) Check to distinguish between reality and dream. If you fail, lose one sanity as dream and reality mesh before your eyes.

Cthulhu +1
Hastur +1
Yig +1
Glaaki +1

Inscriptions of an Ancient God

Each Unique Item, Exhibit Item, and Spell enters play exhausted, as you examine the item.

Ithaqua +1
Tsathoggua +1
Shudde Mâ€™ell +1
Abhoth +1

Correlation of Events

Each time a player gains one or more clue tokens, they gain an extra clue token and lose 1 sanity.

Nyarlathotep +1
Yog-Sothoth +1
Hastur +1
Abhoth +1

Power of Earth

Each time a monster in a street area would move, consider its border Red. (Unless it is Green)

Shub-Niggurath +1
Yig +1
Glaaki +1
Abhoth +1

Star-crossed Planet

When this card comes into play all Investigators must make a Fight (-1) [2] Check or lose 2 stamina. Only lose 1 stamina if you get at least 1 success.

Azathoth +1
Cthulhu +1
Tsathoggua +1
Shudde Mâ€™ell +1

Tier 2: (2 AOâ€™s per card at +2)

Profane Dogma

If at the start of the Mythos Phase there are 2 or more Clue tokens at a location, remove them and place a monster at that location. Ignore this effect if the monster limit would place that monster in the Outskirts.

+2 Nyarlathotep
+2 Abhoth

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Egress to Madness

When entering gates, Investigators must make a Lore (-0) or they are placed in the first space of Râ€™lyeh.

+2 Yog-Sothoth
+2 Cthulhu

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Of Earth and Weald

All monsters are considered to have the Moon symbol for the purpose of movement.

+2 Shub-Niggurath
+2 Shudde Mâ€™ell

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Disorder of Lunacy

Investigators who end their movement at a stable location other than the Asylum or Hospital lose 1 stamina

+2 Azathoth
+2 Hastur

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Enduring Calamities

When this card comes into play, each Investigator discards 1 clue or is Cursed.

While a player is Cursed, they can not be Blessed.

+2 Yig
+2 Tsathoggua

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Cannibalistic Regeneration

Undead monsters are Endless.

When an Undead monster is defeated in combat, make a Luck (-1) Check. If you fail, that monster stays in play.

+2 Glaaki
+2 Ithaqua

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)

Non-Euclidian Nightmares

Each Investigator is delayed.

Each Investigator reduces their sanity to 1.

+3 Cthulhu

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Through the Gate

When this card comes into play, each Investigator must make a Speed (-1) [2] Check or be drawn into the nearest gate.

+3 Yog-Sothoth

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Incurable Affliction

While this card is in play, each player loses 1 stamina at the end of each Mythos phase.

+3 Yig

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Walking Dead

Draw from the Monster Cup until you draw 3 Undead monsters. Place these monsters at the Graveyard. Ignore the monster limit if it would place any of these monsters in the Outskirts.

+3 Glaaki

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Unspeakable Name

Each player with a Tome or Spell must discard it. Raise the Terror Level by 1 for each item discarded.

+3 Hastur

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Icebound

Investigators must spend 1 extra movement point to move into or between street areas.

Investigators must discard the Motorcycle, Patrol Wagon, or Seddanete if possible.

+3 Ithaqua

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Foreshock

Reveal 2 rubble tokens and place up to 2 Cthonians from the monster cup at those locations. (Do not place the rubble tokens)

+3 Shudde Mâ€™ell

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Monetary Debility

Investigators must pay $1 to use the special abilities of the General Store, Magic Shoppe, Curiosity Shoppe, Hospital, or Assylum.

+3 Tsathoggua

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Prophesies of Apocalypse

At end of each Mythos phase (including the current one) place one Doom Token on this card. When this card is discarded, if Azathoth is the Ancient One, place any Doom Tokens on this card on the Azathoth.

+3 Azathoth

The Blind Ape

Each investigator rolls 1 die for each of their clue tokens. For each failure, lose 1 sanity. For each success, gain 1 clue token.

+3 Nyarlathotep

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Black Ram Sighted

All gates appear at the Woods and are considered to be gate bursts.

+3 Shub-Niggurath

(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Return to the Source

Whenever a non-spawn monster would be taken as a trophy or placed in the outskirts, return it to the box instead.

+3 Abhoth

(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)

Looking at your very short list of draws:
6 1's with 4 GOOs, 6 2's with 2 GOOs, and 12 3's

There is an even distribution between all the GOOs
on the 2's and 3's, but down at the 1's, I notice
that Abhoth appears 3 times and Ithaqua only once.
Looking at your statistics, Abhoth comes out at the
higher end (900+) and Ithaqua comes at the lower end
(300+).

I guess I would almost expect Abhoth to be closer
to the head of the pack. So maybe the other factor
which I don't quite understand is your tie-breaker.
What do you mean by "Name wins Ties"?
The first name on the list that has the right number of Omens?

To wake up as the result of a tie:
-- you have to get to the 'right' number one that draw
-- someone else also has to get that same number, on that draw
-- (you cannot 'catch up' to someone who has already woken up)
-- the 1-cards give you more chances of this tie even occurring
therefore, the leaders on the 1-cards get the edge on ties

And since you cannot very well let all 12 GOOs be first
on only 6 1-cards, perhaps another tie breaker is required.
Perhaps remove the omens for all other GOOs from play,
and then continue drawing only for the leading GOOs
until the tie is broken?

If so, then there may have bo be a different suffle of names
on the 1-cards. For example, not Yig and Glaaki always together.
Unfortunately, appealing to a mathematical sense of 'fairness'
will probably run counter to Theme for the omens.

By "Name Wins Ties" he meant that on his last chart, the name was listed first, then the number of wins, followed by the number of ties.

As far as I can see, I don't understand why Yog and Shub would be getting more wins. But Ithaqua needs to replace one of the Abhoths on the +1 Cards. Because as typed up, Ithaqua is getting short changed.

Maybe its simply blind "luck of the draw" that Yog and Shub win out more often than not.

Well, the idea of doing 10000 repetitions is to avoid the luck of the draw scenario. In theory, doing a large number of random draws should converge on the real answer.

My suggestion is to make sure that whatever you used to code it up, that you put the correct values in. More often then not, things like that are a coding situation, and not a statistics situation.

I checked the code with a basic input and it came out statistically correct after 1000, 10000 and 100000 runs.... so I think the code is sound, but thanks for your sharp eyes on the abhoth thing... I will fix it and recalculate it...

Don't know if this really means anything, or if it was possibly on purpose, but there are two cards that pair Abhoth/Nyarlathotep, Glaaki/Yig, Nyarlathotep/Yog Sothoth, and Shudde M'ell/Tsathoggua.

1 Azathoth Nyarlathotep Glaaki Shudde M'ell
1 Cthulhu Hastur Yig Glaaki
1 Ithaqua Tsathoggua Shudde Mâ€™ell Abhoth
1 Nyarlathotep YogSothoth Hastur Ithaqua
1 ShubNiggurath Yig YogSothoth Abhoth
1 Azathoth Cthulhu Tsathoggua Shub Niggurath
2 Nyarlathotep Abhoth
2 YogSothoth Cthulhu
2 ShubNiggurath Shudde Mâ€™ell
2 Azathoth Hastur
2 Yig Tsathoggua
2 Glaaki Ithaqua

This arrangement removes all the double pairs and now every ancient one is paired with seven other ancient ones. I'm not sure if this will fix anything, but I figure it can't hurt. However, I didn't consider any connecting themes or reasons behind my configuration, so it might have to be messed with more to make people happy.

If the 'add points in order listed on card' resolution is taken to get rid of the instances of ties, the order listed on the cards will have to be changed as well to make everything even.

Looking forward to this. My group is enthused about it, making for a harder game and all (less prep time before the final fight). Luckily, I work at a print shop so I'll be outputting a spiffy set once you get 'em done. If they turn out well, I'll let you know.

Well this was just some preemptive analysis for Yhtill, but he never really posted anything final, so I will just modify the stuff I have to work with the framework as posted above and put a PDF for people to print out...

Wow, nice work - good to see that work on the idea continues.

I'm a bit of a 'math person' myself, I will have a closer look at this later. I don't have much time atm to work on the omen card project... though I want to make to do this, I can't really promise how long it will take until I can post something semi-final.

I haven't done the exact math, but I believe EvilAmarant7x suggestion should fix the problem.

Here's the reasoning:
Imaging both tier-1 cards with ShubNiggurath are drawn. Then you'd get:
2x ShubNiggurath
1x Yig
1x Glaaki
1x Abhoth
1x Azathoth
1x Nyarlathotep
1x YogSothoth
So, Shubby has an advantage - it could awake with a tier-2 or tier-3 card while all others need a tier-3 (or several more cards).

But now asume both tier-1 cards with Yig are drawn:
2x Yig
2x Glaaki
1x Abhoth
1x Cthulhu
1x Hastur
1x ShubNiggurath
In this scenario, Yig and Glaaki share the advantage (and thus, have a smaller advantage than Shubby in the example above.)

( - the fact that Glaaki doesn't have the same bad results as Yig is probably due to the fact that at tier-2, Glaaki is paired with Ithaqua which has a disadvantage, resulting from the mistake MadPlanarian spoted. - )

So yes, an equal number of pairings seems necessary to ensure equal chances.

Another thing I'd like to change is the relation between tier-1/tier-2 omens on the one hand and tier-3 omens on the other hand.
Right now, the tier-3 omens make up half of the omen cards total and that doesn't feel right - the 'big and evil' omens should be rarer. So, since we can't reduce the number of tier-3 omens, we need more tier-1 and/or tier-2 cards.
The easiest way would be to print them twice - more difficult would be make more different ones (with different pairing and effects), since we must be careful not to screw the balance again. But then, of couse it would be cooler, since we all want more STUFF, don't we?

Also, my A#1 thrust when making custom sets is thematics. The problems with balance that I was having with the cards I posted before were strictly because I was paring GOOs together to try to draw some common thread between the listed GOOS and the effect on the card.

I am going to debug and reprogram my spreadsheet and I can run some more analysis...

Agreed, thematic meaningful combinations are important... and getting the math and the mythos right at the same time is rather tricky. My instinct would be to focus on meaningful combinations on tier-2 and balance it out with the more generic tier-1 effects.

Do we need some sort of counters/GOO track? I can whip one up and some tokens.

Right now, each tier 1 card has 4 ancient ones, and no matchups are repeated. So each AO is paired with 6 others (7 including the tier 2 card). You can't double the number of tier one cards, unless you want to have the double pairings. Each AO can't be paired with 12 others, there's only 12. (For now at least) But, if you reduced the # of AOs on the tier one cards (so tier 1 has 3, tier 2 has 2, tier 3 has 1), you could. However, if you're sticking with the concept of having two cards for an ancient one appearing, you can only have 8 cards (8*3=24=12*2), which doesn't really increase the card count. If you had each AO appear three times in the tier one set, you'd have 12 tier one cards, and each AO would be paired with 6 others total, so you could basically keep the pairings that exist now to avoid duplication, just kinda split them up-ish. Or if you wanted to pursue the thematics, it's easier to string the AOs together on a common theme if there's only three rather than four.

Also, you could probably just make more tier 2 cards (ie. double those too), so there's two cards within the tier two set for each AO (again with the scaling), this would add another pairings of AOs, but if i'm keeping count correctly, it would pair each AO with 8 other ones (still allowing for non repeated pairs)

So, theoretically, it could be done. But now I propose the question if it can be done thematically?

What we need is a formula/macro for excel that will read X number of names and allow you to enter how many you want per card and generate combinations of cards that dont repeat...

Okay, I've done some more thinking and came to the conclusion that what I'd prefer is:
tier-1: 6 cards with 4 GOOS +1 each
tier-2: 12 cards with 2 GOOS +2 each
tier-3: 12 cards with 1 GOO +3

There isn't really a balanced way to change the number of tier-1 cards, or if there is, I haven't found it. Decreasing the number of GOOs per card to 3 leads to problems as well.

So I'd stick with this solution, which gives us 30 cards total and a 1:2:2 ratio for the tiers, which seems okay to me.
Each GOO has a 'strong tie' to 2 other GOOs at tier-2. That's the place where thematic meaningful combinations should be found, which should be possible (for example, pairing Azahtoth with Nyarlathotep works as well as pairing him with Hastur... as far as our human brains understand the Mythos anyway.

)

The combinations for tier-1 then should 'fill in the gaps' so it's balanced, with the thematic meaningfullness as secondary consideration only.

What do you think...? If nothing better comes up, I'll start defining the combinations and omens later today.

And, to spice things up a bit, here are ideas for two special omen cards:

Closer than I feared
All GOOs with 1 or 2 omen markers gain an additional omen marker.
(Maybe only 1 or 2 omen markers, not sure.)

Misinterpretation
Past omens have been misinterpreted - newer information allowed for a corrected reinterpretation: Move one omen marker of your choice from one GOO to another.
(This would be the only card in game which gives the investigators a tiny bit of influence over which GOO will awake.)

(If there are other good ideas for 'special' omen cards, they are welcome. However, I think there shouldn't be more than 3-4 total so they don't come up to often.)

All of MillMasters pairings make sense to me, so I'll keep them:
Nyarlathotep Abhoth
YogSothoth Cthulhu
ShubNiggurath Shudde Mâ€™ell
Azathoth Hastur
Yig Tsathoggua
Glaaki Ithaqua

In addition, I'd suggest the following pairings for tier-2:

Azathoth Nyarlathothep
Both are often named together in HPLs stories and share some characteristics as being chaotic 'outer gods'.

Abhoth Shubb-Niggurath
Both are, in a perverted way, linked to fertility/spawning monsters.

Cthulhu Shudde M'ell
Both giant monster-thingies under the sea/earth, both are linked to earthquakes.

Hastur Glaaki
Hastur is linked to the stars (Hyades), and Glaaki came from the stars in a comet.

Yig Ithaqua
I always found the two somehow similar, both being minor deities with a more 'worldly' description than the rather abstract or amorphous other beings of the mythos. (Not sure of how to put that in an omen, though).

Tsathoggua YogSothoth
Well, to be honest: Those are the two remaining.

Okay, I'll start now with trying to define the omens, starting with tier-3. I'll use MillMasters suggestions and add my 2c to them. All in all, this is heading in the right direction, but several could use a bit of balancing - some are very harsh, especially considering that often several of them may be in play at the same time.

TIER-3 OMENS

Non-Euclidian Nightmares
Each Investigator is delayed.
Each Investigator reduces their sanity to 1.
+3 Cthulhu
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
To harsh in my opinion. Soften the sanity-loss. Maybei to 1+(1 per open gate to R'lyeh) to make it have some meaningful connection to Cthulhus resting-place?

Through the Gate
When this card comes into play, each Investigator must make a Speed (-1) [2] Check or be drawn into the nearest gate.
+3 Yog-Sothoth
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Perfect!

Incurable Affliction
While this card is in play, each player loses 1 stamina at the end of each Mythos phase.
+3 Yig
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
To harsh! A Stamina 3 investigator won't get out of hospital anymore. This should be softend (for example, allow a roll to avoid stamina loss) or be replaced with something else.

Walking Dead
Draw from the Monster Cup until you draw 3 Undead monsters. Place these monsters at the Graveyard. Ignore the monster limit if it would place any of these monsters in the Outskirts.
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
+3 Glaaki
Good, but maybe a bit on the soft side? How about one of the undead being a random servant of Glaaki?

Unspeakable Name
Each player with a Tome or Spell must discard it. Raise the Terror Level by 1 for each item discarded.
+3 Hastur
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
I like the idea a lot, this is very Hastur-like. But it is much to harsh - imagine what happens when 6-7 spells/tomes are in play!
I'd suggest the following instead:
Each player must decide for every Tome or Spell he owns: Either discard it OR rise the Terror Level by 1.
This makes it less extreme and leaves the players with an interessting choice. Maybe still to harsh, though - not sure.

Icebound
Investigators must spend 1 extra movement point to move into or between street areas.
Investigators must discard the Motorcycle, Patrol Wagon, or Seddanete if possible.
+3 Ithaqua
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Okay and fitting, but basically the same as one of the rumors (can't remember which one). Maybe change it to movement between streets and locations for a bit of variation?

Foreshock
Reveal 2 rubble tokens and place up to 2 Cthonians from the monster cup at those locations. (Do not place the rubble tokens)
+3 Shudde Mâ€™ell
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Major earthquakes ahead! I like this one, has the right amount of 'Ouch!' and foreshadowing.

Monetary Debility
Investigators must pay $1 to use the special abilities of the General Store, Magic Shoppe, Curiosity Shoppe, Hospital, or Assylum.
+3 Tsathoggua
(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Another good one!

Prophesies of Apocalypse
At end of each Mythos phase (including the current one) place one Doom Token on this card. When this card is discarded, if Azathoth is the Ancient One, place any Doom Tokens on this card on the Azathoth.
+3 Azathoth
This one I do not like at all. It just makes Azathoth awake faster - I'd prefer something which doesn't accelerate the game, but makes it more challenging in another way. Haven't come up with a good idea yet, though. I'll think about it.

The Blind Ape
Each investigator rolls 1 die for each of their clue tokens. For each failure, lose 1 sanity. For each success, gain 1 clue token.
+3 Nyarlathotep
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Very interessting, a omen which may help you with a bit of luck. Fits Nyarlathotep nicely. But I would add some penality for investigators without clue tokens to make it a bit harsher. Maybe have them lower their max sanity or draw a derangment?

Black Ram Sighted
All gates appear at the Woods and are considered to be gate bursts.
+3 Shub-Niggurath
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
I like the idea very much, but I think it should stay when the GOO awakes, or at least if the GOO turns out to be Shubby. Else it probably won't have much influence on the game, since it only would have an effect if the woods are sealed and a gate opens there between the omen and the revealing of the GOO - which won't happen to often.

Return to the Source
Whenever a non-spawn monster would be taken as a trophy or placed in the outskirts, return it to the box instead.
+3 Abhoth
(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Nice idea and fits Abhoth, but in this form much to harsh imho. No monster trophies for the rest of the game, which may easily f**k up your mid/lategame! I think this should be discarded when the GOO is revealed.

Yhtill wrote:Okay, I'll start now with trying to define the omens, starting with tier-3. I'll use MillMasters suggestions and add my 2c to them. All in all, this is heading in the right direction, but several could use a bit of balancing - some are very harsh, especially considering that often several of them may be in play at the same time.

TIER-3 OMENS

Non-Euclidian Nightmares
Each Investigator is delayed.
Each Investigator reduces their sanity to 1.
+3 Cthulhu
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
To harsh in my opinion. Soften the sanity-loss. Maybei to 1+(1 per open gate to R'lyeh) to make it have some meaningful connection to Cthulhus resting-place?

Ok, going down to 1 does seem crazy... well i guess going down to 0 IS crazy...lol
I agree, 1 + 1 per open gate to r'lyeh makes it better... BUT this is Cthulhu.... I would prefer like losing 2 +1 for each gate, that way you could send some people insane, and professor or expidition leader cant prevent it.

Incurable Affliction
While this card is in play, each player loses 1 stamina at the end of each Mythos phase.
+3 Yig
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
To harsh! A Stamina 3 investigator won't get out of hospital anymore. This should be softend (for example, allow a roll to avoid stamina loss) or be replaced with something else.

Harsh is the way of Arkham, but broken is not the way of good game design, and this is broken if you do hit the hospital and cant max out... so a retooled version would be something like this:

"While this card is in play, each investigator who is not cursed loses one stamina at the end of each Mythos phase.
When an Investigator goes unconscious, they are cursed."

(remember, once any of these tier 3 cards come out, there will probably only be 2-3 turns before the card is discarded)

Walking Dead
Draw from the Monster Cup until you draw 3 Undead monsters. Place these monsters at the Graveyard. Ignore the monster limit if it would place any of these monsters in the Outskirts.
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
+3 Glaaki
Good, but maybe a bit on the soft side? How about one of the undead being a random servant of Glaaki?

The harder the better IMO... bring out a servant is cool

Unspeakable Name
Each player with a Tome or Spell must discard it. Raise the Terror Level by 1 for each item discarded.
+3 Hastur
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
I like the idea a lot, this is very Hastur-like. But it is much to harsh - imagine what happens when 6-7 spells/tomes are in play!
I'd suggest the following instead:
Each player must decide for every Tome or Spell he owns: Either discard it OR rise the Terror Level by 1.
This makes it less extreme and leaves the players with an interessting choice. Maybe still to harsh, though - not sure.

Tomes are generally crap to most players, I dont like giving them a choice. But I think a cap might be a good idea. Though how are you going to get 9 tomes out within the first 5 or 6 turns? My only guess on that is if you have like 8 players or something. So a fixed version might say:
"players discard all tomes. Raise the terror level by 1 for each discarded. The terror level can not go above the total number of investigators while this card is in play."

Icebound
Investigators must spend 1 extra movement point to move into or between street areas.
Investigators must discard the Motorcycle, Patrol Wagon, or Seddanete if possible.
+3 Ithaqua
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Okay and fitting, but basically the same as one of the rumors (can't remember which one). Maybe change it to movement between streets and locations for a bit of variation?

Doesn't matter either way IMO. As long as it slows the players down in some way and takes away their extra movement cards.

Prophesies of Apocalypse
At end of each Mythos phase (including the current one) place one Doom Token on this card. When this card is discarded, if Azathoth is the Ancient One, place any Doom Tokens on this card on the Azathoth.
+3 Azathoth
This one I do not like at all. It just makes Azathoth awake faster - I'd prefer something which doesn't accelerate the game, but makes it more challenging in another way. Haven't come up with a good idea yet, though. I'll think about it.

One of the biggest problems with Azathoth is that he is the easiest GOO in the game because he is so slow. His abilities are worthless also. Most times Az is defeated he has his whole bottom row or more open. This is a good way to make the lamest GOO in the game a bit harder...

The Blind Ape
Each investigator rolls 1 die for each of their clue tokens. For each failure, lose 1 sanity. For each success, gain 1 clue token.
+3 Nyarlathotep
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Very interessting, a omen which may help you with a bit of luck. Fits Nyarlathotep nicely. But I would add some penality for investigators without clue tokens to make it a bit harsher. Maybe have them lower their max sanity or draw a derangment?

If you dont know anything, you cant go insane or learn more from what you dont know...

Black Ram Sighted
All gates appear at the Woods and are considered to be gate bursts.
+3 Shub-Niggurath
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
I like the idea very much, but I think it should stay when the GOO awakes, or at least if the GOO turns out to be Shubby. Else it probably won't have much influence on the game, since it only would have an effect if the woods are sealed and a gate opens there between the omen and the revealing of the GOO - which won't happen to often.

Um.. making this stay in play forever makes the game broken.

Im not sure if you are realizing what this actually does, because you were saying it will have little affect on the game if it only stays in play for a few turns.

Every time you draw a mythos card, you open that gate at the woods... this means that the first mythos you probably open a gate there. Every subsequent mythos = monster surge at the woods....

IA SHUB-NIGGURATH, BLACK GOAT OF THE WOODS WITH 1000 YOUNG!!!

Return to the Source
Whenever a non-spawn monster would be taken as a trophy or placed in the outskirts, return it to the box instead.
+3 Abhoth
(Do not discard this card when the Ancient One is revealed)
(Remove 1 Doom Token from the Ancient One)
Nice idea and fits Abhoth, but in this form much to harsh imho. No monster trophies for the rest of the game, which may easily f**k up your mid/lategame! I think this should be discarded when the GOO is revealed.

I agree that this is super evil.... possible alteration would be to place any defeated monsters on the card, then discard the card and return the mosnters to the box when some certain threshold is met... like monsters on the card = to Arkham's monster limit. (this way if you somehow hit terror 10 you still get the full game effect!)

MillMaster wrote:(remember, once any of these tier 3 cards come out, there will probably only be 2-3 turns before the card is discarded)

This is the point where I disagree a bit. I've got two concerns:
The first one is about the stastistical distrubtion of the omen deck as we defined it so far. You stated in your initial posting that it takes an average of 6 omens to reveal the AO. While this seems a good number, I wonder what the standard deviation is like. If it is low and only very few games take more then 6 omens, then okay. But if the deviation is higher and a significant percentage of games willl take 8 or more omens... then something needs to be changed. Just imagine having 8+ omens effecting a game, several of them tier 3 with lasting effects...
Do you have any data beyond the average number of turns?

The second consideration is the cumulative effect you get even in a 'normal game'.
In such 'normal' game with 6 omens until the AO is revealed, there is a chance of ~93% for two or more tier-3 omens bein amon those 6. So, in most games you'll have 2 or more tier-3 omens active for something like 1-4 rounds + plus several smaller omens.
Omens like 'Non-Euclidian Nightmares' or 'Incurable Affliction', paired with any other tier-3, and on top of the lesser omens and the usual nasty stuff from the Mythos deck is to harsh, in my opinion, even if it is only for a few rounds.

Thus,
- soften the harsher omens a bit, as suggested above
and/or
- include a rule that allows for only one omen with lasting effect being active at any time.

(Wow, this balancing turns out much more complicated than exspected... now I begin to imagine how much work and math must go into designing an entire game like Arkham Horror!)

Black Ram Sighted

MillMaster wrote:Um.. making this stay in play forever makes the game broken.
Im not sure if you are realizing what this actually does, because you were saying it will have little affect on the game if it only stays in play for a few turns.
Every time you draw a mythos card, you open that gate at the woods... this means that the first mythos you probably open a gate there. Every subsequent mythos = monster surge at the woods....
IA SHUB-NIGGURATH, BLACK GOAT OF THE WOODS WITH 1000 YOUNG!!!

You are right of couse, I totally misread this. I thought it was All gates that appear at the Woods are considered to be gate bursts.
Well, in this case - forget what I said, but it is still is broken: Only gate bursts at the forest means no new gates, thus no new doom markers and thus no new omens... but I still like the basic idea, maybe we just should add a rule to the card that says 'Every time a gate burst appears at the wood, add a doom token' or something like this.

Anyway, I'll coninue with tier-2, starting again with my comments to MillMasters omens and then continuing with my new ones.
I also vote for dropping the 'do not discard if AO is revealed'-rule for tier-2, pretty much for the reasons stated above. With several tier-2 (and maybe tier-3) still active when the AOs abilities enter play, the game will get to harsh imho. Remember that I thought the omen abilities should counterbalance the absent AO abilities in the first phase of the game, not be an additional hardship.
On the other hand, there is the possibility of introducing the 'only-one-lasting-omen-effect-at-a-time' rule as mentioned above... in this case, I'd think it would be okay to have the effects last after the AO is revealed.

TIER-2 OMENS

Profane Dogma
If at the start of the Mythos Phase there are 2 or more Clue tokens at a location, remove them and place a monster at that location. Ignore this effect if the monster limit would place that monster in the Outskirts.
+2 Nyarlathotep
+2 Abhoth
Okay.

Egress to Madness
When entering gates, Investigators must make a Lore (-0) or they are placed in the first space of Râ€™lyeh.
+2 Yog-Sothoth
+2 Cthulhu
Hehe, funny one, I like it!

Of Earth and Weald
All monsters are considered to have the Moon symbol for the purpose of movement.
+2 Shub-Niggurath
+2 Shudde Mâ€™ell
Another creative idea, pretty cool... maybe we should add a sentence for clarification puposes:
If a Mythos card shows both the moon symbol and the creatures original symbol, it moves according to its original symbol.

Disorder of Lunacy
Investigators who end their movement at a stable location other than the Asylum or Hospital lose 1 stamina
+2 Azathoth
+2 Hastur
Not sure about this one... hm.

Enduring Calamities
When this card comes into play, each Investigator discards 1 clue or is Cursed.
While a player is Cursed, they can not be Blessed.
+2 Yig
+2 Tsathoggua
Okay.

Cannibalistic Regeneration
Undead monsters are Endless.
When an Undead monster is defeated in combat, make a Luck (-1) Check. If you fail, that monster stays in play.
+2 Glaaki
+2 Ithaqua
I like it!

It came from the stars
Draw a number of random flying monsters equal to the current number of doom markers and place them in the sky.
+2 Hastur
+2 Glaaki

Outer Madness
Each time an investigator enters another world, he most roll a die: If the result is higher than his current sanity, he must draw a madness card.
+2 Azathoth
+2 Nyarlathothep

Sacrifices for the Angry One
Each investigator must discard one monster trophy or an ally. If he can't, he must draw an injury card.
+2 Yig
+2 Ithaqua

Unholy fertility
For each monster in Arkham, roll a die: For 4-6, place an identical monster from the cup on the field. (If there is no identical monster left in the cup, ignore the effect.)
+2 Abhoth
+2 Shubb-Niggurath

World falling apart
Gates move like black-bordered monsters according to their dimensional symbols. If a gate is on a street field and next to an unstable location with neither gate nor elder sign, it moves there when its symbol is drawn.
If a gate enters a field with an investigator, he is sucked through the gate and delayed.
+2 Tsathoggua
+2 Yog-Sothoth

?
(Haven't had a good idea yet... will fill in later.)
+2 Shudde M'ell
+2 Cthulhu

Yhtill wrote:
On the other hand, there is the possibility of introducing the 'only-one-lasting-omen-effect-at-a-time' rule as mentioned above... in this case, I'd think it would be okay to have the effects last after the AO is revealed.

Suggestion
Omens rule: when the GOO awake, discard all of omens card except that in which the awakening AO is "+2", if already drawn.

... I tried to figure out how to distribute the AOs in tier-1 so now combination appears twice even with the additional tier-2 cards... found the following distribution which should work if I'm not mistaken, you better check:

Nyarlathotep Shubb-Niggurath Yog-Sothoth Glaaki
Nyarlathotep Shudde M'ell Yig Hastur
Abhoth Shudde M'ell Tsatoggua Glaaki
Abhoth Yog-Sothoth Ithaqua Azathoth
Shubb-Niggurath Cthuluh Yig Azathoth
Cthulhu Tsatoggua Ithaqua Hastur

There probably exist other possibilities. If someone can finde one with better thematic matches... else we have to reasign/reinvent the tier-1 omens.javascript:void(0);
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