Vorpal Sword said:
Good to hear, actually: I've been planning a very similar list for my next outing as the Rebels. My only bit of alarm comes with the idea that Wedge and [Y-wing pilot] will kill a TIE in the first engagement; that's a fairly good bet, but it does rely on luck--that is, assuming you have a bit of good luck, or that your opponent doesn't.
Everything relies on luck in this game. All you can hope to do is take the best odds you can. Wedge can normally put at least a crit into a TiE with his Proton eating their evade token as well. Horton is going to give you a near automatic 3-4 hits with his ability, which means the TiE would have to roll out of it's mind to live. You also if needed have Biggs. A range 3 shot with no re-roll/focus isn't very likely to yield any damage, but if the TiE survived it is likely down to one so you'd only need to get one damage through.
So to be frank I don't see what to be alarmed about. It isn't a long shot, it isn't even money, it is a likely outcome. I've had Wedge completely wiff only to have Horton one shot the TiE. Your bets are hedged.
Anyway, I agree it's the likely result; I went back and did some rough math, and it looks like the expected value even if the TIE takes the Evade action is 2.5 crits and 0.5 hits. Now if only there were a way to reduce the variance…
Forget three Rebel Starfighters at 100 points - go for five Rebel Starfighters:
3 Rookie X-Wings and 2 Gold Squadron Y-Wings = 99 points
You'll actually generally outgun the six-TIE swarm and you'll have a lot more shields. Go in slow to keep the TIEs in front of your guns as long as possible.
Better idea: 3 X-wings and 2 A-Wings (assuming the formula posted is right).
:>8•8<: VS |-•-|
I run a very similar build to you, and I've won all my games except 1, and that was because of bad piloting on my part. Biggs was just out of range 3. At my LGS the Rebels have the winning record so far. I would say most of us are at similar levels of play. I would also say that Asteroids favor the rebels. All of the Imperial wins at my LGS were played on maps that didn't have asteroids. It tends to spread the Ties out and keeps them from concentrating there fire.