I was interested in the chances of each type of victory, so I extrapolated the following data.  I assumed all loses were from the final battle.

So if you go in to seal Cthulhu you have about 51%, but if you don't you still have about 8% of defeating him in battle.

• Name Win Seals /close Win Battle % Lose %
• Azathoth      63.8%           0.0%               36.2%
• Tsa               60.5%          2.2%               37.3%
• Cthulhu        50.8%          8.2%               41.0%
• Yog               55.0%           8.3%              36.7%
• Yibb              56.7%         10.0%              33.3%
• Atlach           29.7%         10.8%              59.5%
• Eihort           59.3%         11.1%              29.6%
• Y'golnac      34.9%          13.9%               51.2%
• Shub           43.1%           20.0%              36.9%
• Glaaki          23.5%          23.2%              53.3%
• Ith                 51.8%          24.9%               23.3%
• Abhoth        28.1%           29.6%               42.3%
• Shudde      26.7%           30.7%               42.6%
• Hastur        35.2%           39.8%               25.0%
• Narly           35.7%           40.9%               23.4%
• Yig              16.3%           62.2%                21.5%
• Average     41.9%           21.0%                37.1%
• 
   

Holy crap Glaaki has some nasty %. Only Yig is tougher to seal . Not that Glaaki being a nasty bastard comes as a surprise to me.

Hi all! I'll be doing stats reports every 1st and 15th of the month (or closest work day afterwards). I'll also try to represent upsets in lists by using + and -.

• Stats report for 02/02/09:

(Deleted: obsolete)

It may be uneccessary, but I would like to see an option where you can differentiate between using a board expansion and using just the cards from a board expansion. For example, I may play a game with just the Arkham and Dunwich boards, but still used the Kingsport cards.

As a general rule, if you're using the Kingsport board, you're using KH. If you're using the Dunwich board, you're using DH, no matter what other components you're using from these expansions. If you're using the Next Act cards, you should consider checking the KiY box. Everything else is a gray area.

Using AOs/investigators from certain expansions, (most) heralds, guardians, Injury/Madness, or Epic battle does not necessarily mean you are using that expansion. Many components are designed to be integrated with the base game independently of most of the expansion's other components. Marie Lambeau against Shudde M'ell/King in Yellow/Nodens could very well be entered without checking any of the expansions boxes.

For the most part, it's up to the submitter's discretion. If you're using all the Gate and Location encounters from Curse of the Dark Pharaoh, but none of the Mythos cards, then are you really playing without Curse of the Dark Pharaoh?

Tibs said:

Well the main reason I wanted to include this was because of a theory I've been throwing around in my head. As my group claims (and as these statistics seem to proove) four players is the ideal number to play with. Now if you used both boards, the game would effectively could as four players. So you would still have the five players but you wouldn't be spawning two monsters at each gate and you would count as four. Mainly I would like to see how playing with 5 players and both boards stacks up to playing with just four players and playing with just five players.

Also, the Yog-Sothoth/Ghroth undefeated combo has been defeated! My team of 9 investigators beat that tonight with a closing victory. We lucked out on the mythos which threw gates at the locations we had sealed. All the gates that did open tended to draw in an investigator which was the main thing keeping us from a sealing victory (plus the clue tokens are spread much thinner with 9 players). We also had the extreme luck of drawing two Eltdown Shards with out initial draw. Combined with Wendy's Elder Sign, we were able to effectively counter-act Ghroth's biggest benefit and start in a good position.

Acebob said:

Nice! And that also will be the first 9-investigator game of the stats then.

I was waiting for the 9p game to get submitted!

To address your point, I could generate a separate set of investigator-size-driven stats for games that involved both boards. I don't think I'd want to do this too often, because it would generate a lot more space. But checking it out once might be neat.

*checks*

Wow, and you managed to get all 9 characters to the Hospital to counter the Virulent Disease rumor. Bravo.

Zeb, do you have any of your info on hand?

Which combination of expansions was most common? Which was most difficult?

Tibs said:

I sent you this morning a new output of the script I made, that can calculate most of the stats you publish there, plus the expansion combinations of course. I hope you'll like it. However I'd prefer to be up-to-date and recalculate the data, so if you could please send me the latest data (in ODS format) then I could send you the latest stats.

Then if you want I can post the results and my little analysis I sent you by email.

Tibs kindly sent me the latest stats sheet, so here we are. I have been working for a while on a Python script that can parse the spreadsheet (in OpenDocument format, the native format for Google docs, that is also the native format for OpenOffice) and then calculate the stats. I initially focussed on the "missing stats", the ones that were difficult to do from a spreadsheet software, and then extended to almost all the stats Tibs is used to post here.

Therefore I will show the "missing" stats, in particular the expansion combos stats and the individual investigator success rates.

• Cumulated Expansion stats

There is shown the cumulated expansion usage:

Total number of games: 1057
Expansion #games #vict  %games %vict    %vict with this exp
Base          205          150    19.39      14.19        73.17
BGotW        84            58      7.95        5.49          69.05
CotDP       487          305     46.07     28.86        62.63
DH             631          391     59.70     36.99        61.97
KH            355           207     33.59      19.58       58.31
KiY            450           279     42.57      26.40       62.00

• Expansion Combination stats

There is the expansion usage, breakdown for all possible combinations

Combo                                       #games #vict  %games  %vict    %vict with this combo
('',)                                                     205     150     19.39      14.19      73.17
('BGotW',)                                           8         5         0.76        0.47        62.50
('CotDP',)                                          55       37        5.20        3.50        67.27
('DH',)                                               152      93        14.38     8.80        61.18
('KH',)                                                 48      27         4.54       2.55        56.25
('KiY',)                                                 34      25         3.22       2.37        73.53
('BGotW', 'CotDP')                              3        2          0.28       0.19        66.67
('BGotW', 'DH')                                    3        3          0.28       0.28      100.00
('BGotW', 'KH')                                     1       1          0.09       0.09       100.00
('BGotW', 'KiY')                                     1       1          0.09       0.09       100.00
('CotDP', 'DH')                                    72     53         6.81       5.01        73.61
('CotDP', 'KH')                                    13      11        1.23       1.04        84.62
('CotDP', 'KiY')                                    14      7          1.32       0.66        50.00
('DH', 'KH')                                          33     19         3.12       1.80        57.58
('DH', 'KiY')                                          51     31         4.82       2.93       60.78
('KH', 'KiY')                                          24     19         2.27        1.80       79.17
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH')                    2        0          0.19        0.00        0.00
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'KH')                    3        1          0.28        0.09        33.33
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'KiY')                    2        2          0.19        0.19      100.00
('BGotW', 'DH', 'KH')                           0       0           0.00        0.00
('BGotW', 'DH', 'KiY')                           1       1           0.09        0.09      100.00
('BGotW', 'KH', 'KiY')                           0       0           0.00         0.00
('CotDP', 'DH', 'KH')                            8       6           0.76        0.57      75.00
('CotDP', 'DH', 'KiY')                            63   43          5.96        4.07      68.25
('CotDP', 'KH', 'KiY')                            15     8           1.42        0.76      53.33
('DH', 'KH', 'KiY')                                  9       7           0.85        0.66       77.78
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH', 'KH')             1      0           0.09        0.00       0.00
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH', 'KiY')            36    27         3.41        2.55       75.00
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'KH', 'KiY')             0       0          0.00        0.00
('BGotW', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY')                   0       0          0.00        0.00
('CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY')                   177   93       16.75      8.80       52.54
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY')   23    15          2.18       1.42       65.22

I'll post comments on these stats later.

Just looking at significant stats for combos (where there are at least 20 games played with that combo):

('',)                                                     205     150     19.39      14.19      73.17

('BGotW',)                                           8         5         0.76        0.47        62.50
('CotDP',)                                          55       37        5.20        3.50        67.27
('DH',)                                               152      93        14.38     8.80        61.18
('KH',)                                                 48      27         4.54       2.55        56.25
('KiY',)                                                 34      25         3.22       2.37        73.53

('CotDP', 'DH')                                    72     53         6.81       5.01        73.61

('DH', 'KH')                                          33     19         3.12       1.80        57.58
('DH', 'KiY')                                          51     31         4.82       2.93       60.78
('KH', 'KiY')                                          24     19         2.27        1.80       79.17

('CotDP', 'DH', 'KiY')                            63   43          5.96        4.07      68.25

('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH', 'KiY')            36    27         3.41        2.55       75.00

('CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY')                   177   93       16.75      8.80       52.54
('BGotW', 'CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY')     23    15          2.18       1.42       65.22

Unsurprisingly, adding an expansion to the base game increases the difficulty (in particular DH and KH), except KiY.

But there are surprises: ('CotDP', 'DH') is more successful than DH, meaning that CotDP makes DH easier than DH alone! This is confirmed by ('CotDP', 'DH', 'KiY') as well. Maybe only experienced players play these multiple expansions? On the other hand ('CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY') is the hardest combo! Strange, isn't it ? Of course, we need to be careful when the number of games is low, because the statistical variations will be higher.

In term of number of games, it is natural to see combo frequency follow the order of expansion publishing date. But there are some peculiarities: there are few "out-of-order of publication" games, such as DH + KiY or KH + KiY. There are more CotDP+DH, CotDP+DH+KiY, etc which means people don't bother separating their extensions after purchase. For instance, there are more ('CotDP', 'DH', 'KH', 'KiY') than any other combo, even DH alone! It means that people "accumulate" their expansions and they do not remove them afterwards.

• Investigator popularity and individual success

This table shows the % of games and % of victories for each investigator:

Name                 #games     #vict      %games     %vict      %vict with this inv
"Ashcan" Pete          118         88      11.16       8.33      74.58
Amanda Sharpe           81         61       7.66       5.77      75.31
Bob Jenkins             96         69       9.08       6.53      71.88
Carolyn Fern           118         85      11.16       8.04      72.03
Charlie Kane            48         24       4.54       2.27      50.00
Daisy Walker            79         48       7.47       4.54      60.76
Darrell Simmons        137        105      12.96       9.93      76.64
Dexter Drake           128         83      12.11       7.85      64.84
Diana Stanley          104         69       9.84       6.53      66.35
Gloria Goldberg         92         61       8.70       5.77      66.30
Harvey Walters         103         67       9.74       6.34      65.05
Jacqueline Fine        104         80       9.84       7.57      76.92
Jenny Barnes           109         72      10.31       6.81      66.06
Jim Culver              70         40       6.62       3.78      57.14
Joe Diamond            129         93      12.20       8.80      72.09
Kate Winthrop          113         81      10.69       7.66      71.68
Leo Anderson            99         67       9.37       6.34      67.68
Lily Chen               84         55       7.95       5.20      65.48
Lola Hayes              56         39       5.30       3.69      69.64
Luke Robinson           58         38       5.49       3.60      65.52
Mandy Thompson         202        151      19.11      14.29      74.75
Marie Lambeau           74         48       7.00       4.54      64.86
Mark Harrigan           88         62       8.33       5.87      70.45
Michael McGlen         116         75      10.97       7.10      64.66
Monterey Jack          106         71      10.03       6.72      66.98
Rex Murphy              58         34       5.49       3.22      58.62
Rita Young              86         60       8.14       5.68      69.77
Sister Mary             85         43       8.04       4.07      50.59
Tony Morgan             57         37       5.39       3.50      64.91
Vincent Lee             82         42       7.76       3.97      51.22
Wendy Adams             65         47       6.15       4.45      72.31
Wilson Richards         97         67       9.18       6.34      69.07

I let you draw your own conclusions and comment them.

If some people have ideas of other stats, I'll be pleased to add them to my script (as long as they are not overwhelmingly too complex).

zeb said:

Am I reading it right, 36 games with said combo, 27 wins? Hehe, I think I contributed quite a bit then, as my last 24 games were using that combo and only 2 losses.

zeb said:

Haha, KiY makes base game easier, lol.

zeb said:

I can only speak for myself, but I'm way too lazy to start separating expansions and then mixing them in again, making sure they are shuffled properly . Seems kinda redundant.

The three worse investigators in the game are Vincent, Sister and Charlie Kane (as popularly played).  I've always considered them a drag on a team.   Time to reimplement my house rules to make them more playable.

Vincent can heal anyone in town if he's in town too. Sister doesn't lose her blessing and Charlie (well I won't mention what I do with Charlie).

Daisy Walker at 60% probably means most people haven't discovered her spell yet.

I'm kind of surprise to see Amanda and Jacqueline so high in helping their teams.  Maybe not Jacqueline. She really saved us a lot of Mythos trouble in our last game.

To Zeb: The stat I always extrapolate is the chance of winning by seals/close vs. battle for each AO.